Undergraduate Research and Creativity

URECA

2006-2007

Towards an Operational Storm Surge Prediction Model
for the Northeastern Seaboard

Robert Hunter and Malcolm J. Bowman
Stony Brook Storm Surge Research Group
Marine Sciences Research Center
Stony Brook University

The Stony Brook Storm Surge Project is investigating threats to the Metropolitan New York and Long Island areas from storm surges in an era of global climate change. We are developing an integrated meteorological-oceanographic-wave numerical model for real-time 60-hour forecasts of water level and coastal flooding using constantly-updated weather forecasts. Software is being developed to run daily a 9-member ensemble, using eight different meteorological forecasts and two ocean grids with different resolutions and domains. Throughout the past year, the model has been further refined by improving oceanographic model parameters and meteorological-oceanographic model integration. A new grid, with increased resolution and skill, has been tested on past storms, and the operational forecast model is being migrated to using it. This winter, we are collecting data from significant storm events for long term analysis of the model accuracy. Various data products for displaying and analyzing the predictions are being used for verification and improvement of the model. Our eventual goal is to provide a real-time warning system for conveying flooding threats to the public. Funded by New York Sea Grant.